Earlier this month we moved into a weather pattern where a new, big rain system affects some part of the country every few days.

Tropical moisture is fed into low pressure and turned into widespread rain - for those in the path of the low pressure.

The most recent system was huge, affecting every Australian state and territory, because the low crossed the Great Australian Bight near the coast and had a cold front stretching up into northern Australia, ensuring rain fell across a huge swathe of land.

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As always, there are some spots that miss out and the path of this one meant that it was from Melbourne through to Sydney, if you were taking the coastal route.

Conversely, the Hume Freeway did extremely well, with falls over 50mm for much of the journey.

The next weather system delivered in the west early in the week, then took a path over South Australia and New South Wales. This part was a nice follow up, but nothing significant.

While the low pressure part disappears off the east coast, it does leave behind a pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere.

This is the energy needed for the next low to form, and the weather pattern has decided that just off the northern NSW coast is the right spot for that low.

Coastal lows can pack a punch, as we saw recently with the headlines that screamed Rain Bomb. That particular low developed quickly and deeply enough to undergo what is known as ‘bombogenesis’, while this upcoming one isn’t likely to be quite as severe.

We’ll still see a lot of rain, with falls over 100mm highly likely along parts of the NSW coast and adjacent inland to the ranges. The winds strengthen too, especially on the weekend when the low is at its deepest, but may fall just short of widespread damaging gusts.

Conditions ease early next week after the next big weather system crosses the west on the weekend. While this is occurring the southeast (away from the NSW coast) takes a break under high pressure. That high is likely to ‘get in the way’ of the next big system approaching from the west, blocking most of that rain early next week.

Then a new feed of moisture from the Indian Ocean could develop mid next week. Another juicy, northwest cloudband. One to watch to see what path it takes and which areas see the next significant rain.

Why are we seeing all these feeds of tropical moisture? Earlier this week the Indian Ocean crossed the threshold into a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole.

A significant milestone for Australia’s weather, and a sign that more rain systems are on the horizon.