Geoff Raby has no doubt how he would advise Anthony Albanese if he were briefing the Prime Minister in the minutes before this coming week’s planned talks with China’s President Xi Jinping.
“I’d be telling him that this is a very important moment in Australia-China relations,” Raby said.
As Australia’s Ambassador in Beijing, Raby counselled prime ministers John Howard, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard on the critical relationship with China.
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In the decade-and-a-half since, China has surged as a military superpower, while two-way trade has all but trebled — built on $100 billion a year of Australian iron ore exports.
Before leaving Sydney, the Prime Minister acknowledged that — on the list of our trading partners — China is bigger than the next three combined.
”The relationship in China means jobs in Australia. It’s as simple as that,” Albanese said.
China is the export market we can’t live without, at the same time as our longtime security guarantor, the United States, regards China as its greatest military rival.
After decades of experience in China diplomacy — stretching back to a stint in Australia’s Beijing Embassy in the 1980s — Geoff Raby acknowledges China “needs to be watched” but says the common assumption that it’s now the world’s great military threat, is wrong.
”My own view is that China is not a threat to Australia’s security as such. China is much more interested in its own stability (and) economic performance,” Raby said.
More important to Raby is the fact China has land borders with 14 countries and territorial issues with Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan and Hong Kong that loom large in Beijing’s calculations.
Add in a dependence on foreign energy and natural resources, and China is a “constrained superpower”.
”This is all part of us having to recognise an emerging new power and be smart in how we deal with it,” Raby said.
But one feature of Australia’s recent security policy has been anything but “smart”, according to Raby.
AUKUS, the giant nuclear submarine pact with the United States and the United Kingdom is set to cost hundreds of billions of dollars over coming decades.
Raby called it “a foreign policy failure for Australia”.
”We have had decades of trying to integrate ourselves into Asia … That has been the cornerstone of our foreign policy for 40-odd years. AUKUS really tears that up,” he said.
As Prime Minister Albanese visits China, AUKUS approaches a crossroad in Washington.
The Pentagon is reassessing the security pact to see if it fits with President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.
As well, the Trump Administration’s demand that the Albanese government sharply increase military spending has stoked doubts in Australia about the commitment of the United States to our defence.
Raby shares that concern.
”Having put this big bet on the US, can we rely on them to be there whenever we need them? Serious defence analysts question that these days,” he said.
Raby argued more of Australia’s security ought to rest on regional relationships and less on our AUKUS partners.
”Independent foreign policy is essential. We have to be able to make these decisions for ourselves,” he said.
So where does that leave Anthony Albanese in his Beijing meeting with Xi Jinping?
Raby said the Prime Minister must raise human rights issues and consular cases involving imprisoned Australians.
As well he needs from President Xi “a very clear understanding that China sees a future in a close economic relationship with Australia”.
The veteran diplomat also cautioned that the “personal dynamic is extremely important”.
It may be even more so at this, the fourth leaders’ meeting between Xi and Albanese.
Our Prime Minister has yet to clinch his first Trump meeting. Relations with the U.S. President appear cool. Any sign of warmth in the talks with Xi is sure to stand out.